Decline of Far-Right Militias in the US? Analyzing the Impact of Recent Convictions

End for Far-Right Militias in the US?

The sentences related to the Capitol attack have dealt a heavy blow to far-right militias in the United States. But have these groups really been significantly weakened?

The leaders of the “Proud Boys” and Oath Keepers are now behind bars. These two far-right militias, who gained notoriety after the storming of the US Capitol, are now essentially leaderless. According to Jon Lewis, an extremism researcher at George Washington University, this has undoubtedly weakened them.

The arrest, charges, and conviction of Stuart Rhodes from the Oath Keepers and Enrique Tarrio and other leaders of the Proud Boys have had enormous consequences for both groups. However, the impact has varied due to their different structures.

Oath Keepers without leadership

The 18-year sentence handed down to their founder, Stewart Rhodes, has had a greater impact on the Oath Keepers. Rhodes had almost sole control over the group, and since his arrest, they have virtually disappeared from the scene.

The Proud Boys, for now, may also struggle to organize on a national level as they did during the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021, according to Lewis in an interview with ARD. However, there are local-level individuals who could now play a greater role within the organization, thus shifting the threat.

Local-level threat

The threat does not lie in the possibility of mass mobilization on January 6, 2025, following the 2024 presidential election. Instead, the threat emerges at the local level, targeting individuals who are less protected and therefore easier targets for the Proud Boys.

During the Capitol attack, the Proud Boys were at the forefront, says Lewis. The exact number of official members who have taken the oath is unclear, but Lewis estimates it to be around 500 nationwide, spread across various chapters in different states.

High sentences as a “victory for democracy”

The sentences ranging from 15 to 22 years against their leader, Enrique Tarrio, and three senior members, Ethan Nordean, Joseph Biggs, and Zachary Rehl, are seen as a victory for democracy and the rule of law by the extremism expert. These hefty penalties are also expected to have a deterrent effect. Lewis refers to it as a “new reality” in which many no longer believe they can behave as recklessly as on January 6.

There have also been no violent protests surrounding former President Donald Trump’s court appearances. The feared protests in New York, Miami, Washington, or Atlanta did not materialize. Jon Lewis does not doubt that the Proud Boys continue to support Trump. “I think the Proud Boys have realized that the former president is their best chance of regaining relevance.”

Trump’s avoidance of distancing

During the 2020 presidential campaign, Trump refused to clearly condemn the far-right Proud Boys. In a TV debate with Joe Biden, he said, “Proud Boys – stand back and stand by.” Days later, he claimed he didn’t even know who the Proud Boys were. But they celebrated Trump’s words, feeling empowered. Now, three years later, they are clearly weakened.

However, the extremism researcher from George Washington University warns that the overall threat posed by domestic terrorism has not diminished since January 6, 2021. It extends far beyond individual groups like the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, or other far-right organizations.

Lack of a coherent strategy against extremists

White supremacists or anti-government extremists are often individuals who sometimes gather online. Lewis expresses concern that the US government appears to have no strategy to address this issue.

In June, the Democrats in the Senate Homeland Security Committee criticized the US intelligence agencies in a more than 100-page report, stating that they still do not adequately monitor the threat of domestic terrorism.

According to Jon Lewis, there is no doubt that white supremacist extremism, in particular, represents the deadliest and most widespread domestic terrorism threat in the United States.