The Prigoschin revolt has dealt a harsh blow to Russia and could have repercussions for Europe. The EU must prepare, says Foreign Affairs Representative Borrell. Despite receiving warnings from US intelligence, the dramatic uprising by the Wagner mercenaries in Russia caught the European Union unaware. The Chairman of the EU Military Committee, Robert Brieger, admits that they had not expected the weekend’s events or received any alert on the situation while speaking at the Foreign Ministers Meeting in Luxembourg.

However, Austrian diplomat Alexander Schallenberg commends the EU’s composed reaction in not rushing to make hasty assessments. He believes that it is an internal Russian matter and shows that there are tensions in Russian power dynamics, and Russia’s exterior portrayal is not always accurate.

A challenge for the Kremlin

The Prigoschin uprising presents a significant challenge for the Kremlin, and it could be the beginning of the end for President Vladimir Putin’s regime, says the new head of Finland’s Foreign Office, Elina Valtonen. She believes that in every authoritarian state, everything appears stable until it all falls apart one day.

The power struggle in Moscow is far from over, and the EU must prepare for potential repercussions, warns Foreign Affairs Representative Josep Borrell. He says, “It is vital now more than ever to continue supporting Ukraine.” The events of the weekend have shown that the war affects Russia’s power and political system. The crucial realisation is that “The monster Putin created with the Wagner group is now turning against its creator.”

Danger for the whole world

Although Russia’s leadership currently appears to support President Putin, the country’s stability remains uncertain. Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Jean Asselborn warns that if the world’s largest country with the most nuclear weapons collapses, it would be dangerous for Europe and the world.

The next moves of the notorious Wagner group are just as unpredictable as Moscow’s future developments. Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warns that if Prigoschin moves his troops to Belarus, it will pose a threat to Europe’s security. It only took half a day to move the military units up to 200km outside Moscow, so how quickly could they march through Belarus and reach the Lithuanian border?

NATO and EU prepare

The EU, as well as NATO, of which 22 EU states are members, is already prepared for new threats. Sweden is about to join. The Western defence alliance has significantly increased its presence in the eastern alliance states and its rapid reaction forces. Germany plans to station 4,000 troops permanently in partner country Lithuania. Additionally, 17 EU states have joined the German initiative, “Sky Shield,” for a joint European air defence system.

Europe is already militarily adjusting to new threats. However, the EU distinctly does not want to politically work towards regime change in Moscow. The Lithuanian Foreign Minister Landsbergis states that this idea is unnecessary as the Russians can achieve it independently.