Challenges at the EU Summit
The EU summit in Brussels has a lot to discuss, from Ukraine to China, from asylum reform to EU financial demands. An overview of the central topics.
Power Struggle in Moscow
The recent revolt by the Wagner mercenary leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, naturally disrupts the agenda of the EU summit. The future developments in Russia and the potential consequences for the war against Ukraine are as unpredictable as the future of the Wagner Group. If the private army were to gather in Belarus, it could pose a threat to European security.
It is also unclear what dangers an unstable Russia could present. After the events of the past weekend, the EU aims to demonstrate unity – among themselves and with partner countries such as the United States. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is a guest, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky participates via video conference. The EU explicitly emphasizes its support for the defense industry in Europe’s expansion of production capacities and the decision for more joint weapons purchases. Ahead of the NATO summit, scheduled for mid-July in Vilnius, the heads of state and government also plan to discuss cooperation with the Western military alliance.
Ukraine Assistance
The support for Ukraine should not only continue but also be expanded – as a clear signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Putin is hoping that the EU will run out of steam, but Brussels says he will lose that bet.
Therefore, the European peace fund, which finances the majority of military assistance to Kyiv, is expected to be increased by 3.5 billion euros. However, no further concrete decisions are expected. While the EU Commission and member states like Estonia or Lithuania want to hold Russia accountable for the reconstruction of Ukraine by using frozen Russian assets, such as by capturing interest earnings, this is considered legally challenging. Many governments doubt whether the efforts will be worthwhile.
The nature of a special tribunal for Russian war criminals is still uncertain. According to the EU and NATO, security guarantees for Ukraine can only be discussed once the war is over.
Asylum Reform
The debate is far from over with the compromise reached by the EU interior ministers. Hungary and Poland still refuse to accept refugees and categorically reject the planned penalties. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban wants asylum seekers to wait outside the EU until their applications are decided. Italy and Austria also demand similar agreements with third countries like Tunisia.
Other states such as Bulgaria, Denmark, or the Netherlands may renew their demand for EU
EU Commission chief von der Leyen proposes tighter controls on foreign investments and technology exports. The EU should not decouple itself from China, but practice so-called de-risking: i.e. reduce one-sided and possibly dangerous dependencies on Chinese suppliers and trading partners. For example, when it comes to important raw materials or semiconductors.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz will report on the German-Chinese intergovernmental consultations. Germany is in favor of a balanced statement that addresses both the risks and the areas in which the EU depends on cooperation with China, such as on climate protection.
