This is a great first since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Monday, March 20, in Moscow, Russian President Vladimir Putin receives his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, for three days. A trip that has nothing to do with a simple courtesy visit, since negotiations are on the program. “It will be a one-on-one conversation, there will be an informal lunch. And from [Tuesday] March 21 there will be a day of negotiations,” said Dmitry Peskov, the spokesman for the Russian presidency.
For its part, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spoke of a “movement for friendship and peace”. Will it be about the war in Ukraine, from which China has kept a good distance since February 2022? No details in this direction have yet filtered. In recent weeks, however, Beijing has presented its major “global security initiative”, in addition to being active on other issues, such as the historic resumption of talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Is China establishing itself as a new mediator? In what interest?
A “biased neutrality” about Ukraine
Since Russia invaded Ukrainian territory on February 24, 2022, China has preferred to play the card of neutrality, refusing strong condemnation and sanctions. On the first evening of the invasion, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a 12-point statement (in English), calling for respect for everyone’s national sovereignty, while demanding the abandonment of a ” cold war mentality”, which opposed the United States to the Soviet Union for more than forty years.
On February 21, Beijing presented its grand plan for peace, dubbed the “Comprehensive Security Initiative”, which includes only a vague mention of the Ukrainian conflict. The document indeed calls for “supporting the political settlement of hot spots, such as the Ukrainian crisis, through dialogue and negotiation”. Far from arms sales and military support, therefore, contrary to the United States and the European Union, for example.
“China has an obvious interest in presenting itself as a responsible power, which contributes to world stability”, analyzes the sinologist Antoine Bondaz, who believes that Beijing will not really play the mediator between Moscow and Kiev. “In the case of Ukraine, China remains in a biased neutrality, and implicitly supports Russia while avoiding condemning it”, argues this specialist in Chinese foreign policy.
“Being a mediator implies that there has been an aggression, that Russia has violated the UN Charter… That is not China’s position yet.”
For Beijing, the conflict in Ukraine is above all an opportunity “to show that China’s foreign policy is peaceful, and to display the image of a great country”, according to Zhao Tong, researcher at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Beijing, interviewed by RFI. Even if it means remaining “on questions of principle” and “few concrete proposals”, underlines the specialist. Accused at the end of February of wanting to supply arms to Russia, China defended itself. But Beijing is continuing its military exercises with Moscow, as the Russian Ministry of Defense announced on March 15 on Telegram (in Russian), about maritime maneuvers between Russia, Iran and China in the sea. Oman.
Efforts related to Beijing’s interests
On March 10, Chinese diplomacy played a nice trick by bringing Iran and Saudi Arabia back to the negotiating table, ending seven years of rupture. An announcement that surprised the international community, but which is not so surprising, according to Antoine Bondaz. “This role that China is trying to play is not new, he underlines. The first Chinese special envoy for the Middle East dates from 2002. And in 2017, Beijing hosted negotiations between Israel and Palestine. ” New, however, this mediation “resulted in a very media way on major announcements”, notes the specialist.
China’s diplomatic efforts in this region are never very far from its economic interests, nevertheless points out Antoine Bondaz. “China needs stability because it buys Iranian oil, which is subject to Western sanctions,” he said. Saudi Arabia is also an increasingly important customer for the Chinese arms industry, as reported by the South China Morning Post. Last November, Riyadh bought $4 billion worth of Chinese weapons and equipment, including drones and anti-ship missiles.
Closer to Beijing, the open crisis between Burma and Bangladesh, where more than a million Rohingyas who fled Burma are refugees, has drawn the attention of China. Negotiations under the aegis of the Chinese thus made it possible, at the end of October 2022, to pave the way for the repatriation of these persecuted populations in Burma, as reported by the specialized site Modern Diplomacy (in English). “In this case, China has a direct interest, because this crisis in a neighboring country risks spilling over into its territory”, explains Antoine Bondaz.
